Grand National SuperComputer:
- Irish raider Intense Raffles predicted to land World’s Greatest Steeplechase
- Reigning champion I Am Maximus will go close once again
- British-trained debutant backed to bag runner-up spot
Irish raider Intense Raffles has been predicted to add to his Irish Grand National success from last year by landing the biggest prize in horse racing at Aintree next week.
According to the Slingo Grand National SuperComputer, the Thomas Gibney-trained star is the number one option to win the Grand National on Merseyside next Saturday afternoon.
A British-trained runner in Iroko, who is trainers Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerreiro’s first ever runner in the race, is predicted to finish in second, with recent Cheltenham Festival winner Stumptown backed to finish on the podium.
Last year’s winner, I Am Maximus trained by Willie Mullins, is predicted to finish in fourth place as he attempts to defend his crown.
According to the SuperComputer, Intense Raffles has the best chance of winning the race at 11.4% and landing the huge £500,000 top prize. Iroko has been handed a 10% chance of winning, while Stumpton and I Am Maximus are both at 8.7%
The Grand National has changed shape over a number of years, but some big alterations came into effect ahead of the 2024 renewal.
The field size was cut from 40 to 34, the run into the first fence was shortened, the 11th fence was reduced in height, and the start time was brought forward.
Some things haven’t changed though. Horses still have 30 fences in total to jump over four miles and two-and-a-half furlongs which lasts just under 10 minutes.
A few of the famous National fences include Becher’s Brook (fence six and 22), Foinavon (fence seven and 23), Canal Turn (fence eight and 24), Valentine’s Brook (fence nine and 25), and The Chair (fence 15).
Methodology
The simulation ran 100,000 times using a mix of market odds and ratings. This also includes the average winnings. This is done by giving out the prize winnings after every race and then recording the total amount of money won by that horse after 100,000 simulations and dividing it by that many sims so we can see the average amount won by the horse in each simulated race.
Given in the table is the probability of that runner winning, coming 2nd, 3rd and finishing inside the top 10 (i.e. to win a prize).
